WHO ARE THE WAGNER GROUP?
Also known as Wagner PMC (private military corporation) it is a company which operates as a Russian private military contractor. It has offered its services to both private groups and the Russian government.
Its relationship with the Russian government is ambiguous but it is widely believed that it operates as a proxy force for the Russian state in the past. The Russian government denies ties with the organisation as it has been accused of several human rights abuses and international law abuses.
WHO IS YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN?
Yevgeny Prigozhin is leader of the Wagner group and for a long time has been known as Putin’s right-hand man. He is nicknamed ‘Putin’s chef’ because of his catering companies but he is also in charge of legislation companies that were accused of interfering in the 2016 US elections on Putin’s behalf by spreading misinformation. Most notably though, Prigozhin and the Wagner group have been accused of carrying out Putin’s ‘dirty work’ as they are dissociated from the government so the state cannot be held accountable.
In recent weeks Prigozhin has publicly accused the Russian ministry of defence of undersupplying them with munitions and supply levels falling below 70%. In a meeting with Putin last week Prigozhin revealed that he believes Putin should have taken Kiev in March 2022 and that the war was orchestrated for the purpose of power and money, resulting in unnecessary Russian casulties. Prigozhin accused Russian forces of bombing a Wagner camp and is using this as pretext for the attack. Since last night Prigozhin has accused Russia of bombing his military sites in Ukraine as a reaction to his attempted coup. The Russian ministry of defence has denied all allegations.
Prigozhin is extremely right wing and has publicly advocated for Russia to undertake an expansionist policy and has accused Putin of not being aggressive enough against Ukraine multiple times and going easy in some points during the war. He also disagrees with the idea that the Ukrainians deserve mercy because they are also Slavic peoples. If Prigozhin where to take control of the army, the situation for Ukraine could get much worse.
At the same time however there is suspicion inside the Russian government that the Wagner group has been bought out by the US and is doing this on behalf of the west in order to remove Putin from power. However, there is no evidence of this, only motive and it is quite unlikely, but altogether possible given the independent state of the Wagner group.
CURRENT EVENTS
Late last night (23rd June) Wagner forces still in Bakhmut (Russian territory in Ukraine) opened fire on Russian forces and on open roads, however there have also been reports that Russian Federation (RF) forces shelled Wagner Group positions first. Some of the RF forces joined the opposition and fighting is still taking place in the region. Meanwhile Wagner entered the streets of Rostov-on-Don, a Russian city on the South West borders of Ukraine. Video evidence has surfaced showing a heated meeting between Wagner Leader, Prigozhin, and RF commander of Rostov HQ. Prigozhin is accusing the RF of attacking civilians, also stating Wagner is “after the Chief of Staff and Shoigu”, consequently adding “if they don’t come, we don’t leave.” A Wagner operated channel has written that “All military personnel of the RF armed Forces who do not want to join the cleansing campaigns will be considered collaborators” and will be dealt with accordingly. This is therefore a clear sign revolt by force and the early stages of a potential coup.
Wagner is moving along the highway travelling to Moscow as Putin and other high ranking officials have been evacuated from Moscow and have moved to St. Petersburg according to the movement of Military VIP aircrafts. The lack of fighting is worrying for Putin as the Federal Security Service and the OSBR (Spetsnaz branch) had set up blockades but there is little resistance as Wagner’s forces advance toward Moscow. This is indicative of Russian forces joining the Wagner forces. This is incredibly worrying for Putin as reports coming in now (24th June, 16:06 GMT) say that Wagner forces are currently located at the Moscow OBLO which is roughly 1 hour away from Moscow city.
Wagner had around 25,000 mercenaries on his side however after taking over military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don yesterday he now has around 50,000 soldiers at his disposal. The Wagner forces are certainly outmatched currently but the lack of intervention by the Russian army is very worrying for Putin.
There have been reports now for months that the Russian troops in Ukraine have been demoralised as casualties have surpassed 50,000 and Putin has been happy to let the war drag out, being reluctant to increase aggression. He has not once visited the front lines and is never near officers in uniform to show he is engaged in the war. As a result he has alienated much of the Russian army and there is growing belief that as Prigozhin is moving toward Moscow Russian soldiers may desert and join Wagner’s forces.
UKRAINE SIDE DEVELOPMENTS
Ukraine has regained positions that have been under control of Russia since 2014 south of Donetsk, Russian front lines are collapsing as Wagner forces are moving from Ukraine to move toward Moscow.
NUCLEAR INTERVENTION
Nuclear intervention is unlikely by Putin as using Weapons of mass destruction in his own territories would show instability and weakness on his side. It would not help his image to show that he doesn’t have sufficient forces to maintain power in his own capital. Also if he were to use nuclear weapons on the Wagner group it would be impossible to contain the damage and there would be huge impacts on civilians which would cause irreparable damage to the support of his government. Furthermore, use of nuclear weapons breaches the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) and would therefore allow NATO to intervene in the Russo-Ukrainian war which would be catastrophic for Putin and cause unnecessary tension.
PUTIN’S ADDRESS
Putin finally addressed the situation today, releasing a message at 11:22 (GMT) addressing the attack as an “internal mutiny” and a “stab in the back” warning of serious consequences for those who join or aid the coup in a way as they would be committing “treason”. Many however have commented on his body language and uneasiness during the speech which contrasts with his usual self during other speeches hinting at a lack of control of the situation, backed up by the reports that he is leaving Moscow so readily after showing little resistance as Prigozhin closes in on the city.
