PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński (C)
On the 15th October, Europe will be watching as Poland opens the ballots for their 2023 electoral vote. This election has been deemed as the “most important election since 1989 and the fall of communism” by Andrzej Duda, the current president, as tensions rise between parties due to a narrowing in the political spectrum. Many decisions on topics such as migration, aid to Ukraine and abortion rights will be dictated by the outcome of this general election.
The polish electoral system is one based on 460 seats within the Sejm, with each seat being a candidate from a party in a constituency. The candidate with the highest aggregate votes in the constituency is then allocated the seat. At least 35% of candidates in the Sejm must be women and the same goes for men. Individual parties must win at least 5% of the national vote to earn a seat in parliament, while coalitions must win 8%.
The Law and Justice party (PiS), which is lead by Jarosław Kaczyński, will be looking to regain their third term as a majority in the Sejm (lower house of parliament). However, simultaneously their grasp of power is weakening as the Centrist Civic Coalition (KO) - lead by Donald Tusk- gains political support of the middle classes with their centrist-right ideology and liberal economic values. While they do have growing support, Tusk wasn't able to form coalitions with 'The Third Way' and 'The Left', leaving a large margin of voters out of his reach.
PiS’s main aims are to take more steps into asserting conservative values into public life by making new additions to school curriculum, restoring the economy from double digit inflation, upping pension payments, cutting petrol prices and carrying on to fight the anti-immigration front. Tusk has denounced this as being xenophobic while critics state a PiS win would drag Poland further from democratic standards. On the other hand, KO’s aims are to reassert women’s rights for abortion - which was put under a near ban by PiS - to expand civil partnerships for same-sex couples and to capitalise on a recent corruption scandal involving the sale of Schengen-zone visas. KO parties agree to undo PiS changes to the media to ensure their independence and constitutional rights.
Last month, the current ruling party (PiS) have stopped sending weapons to Ukraine. This was done due to the party shifting focus to modernizing and expanding its own weapon supplies due to a deficit created by sending aid to Ukraine. Until last month, Poland was a staunch Ukraine supporter; sending over $3 billion in aid since the invasion. As Poland intends to cease importing grain in order to reduce surpluses and boost the selling price for domestic farmers, who are being displaced by the low-cost imported commodity, trading relations with Ukraine have weakened, which has also contributed to this cancellation of armaments. The PiS have large support from the farming and rural communities, meaning it is in their best interest to keep prices of grain high in order to profit satisfice and maintain relations. This isolationist policy has been viewed negatively by the EU and Ukraine have labelled it as a form of “hypocrisy” which contradicts bilateral trade agreements. However, the PiS also claim that the polish people have growing “Ukrainian fatigue” due to over 1m refugees residing in Poland and the constant demand for more from Zelensky. The current president of Poland, Andrzej Duda, stands firm with his opinion and has described Ukraine as “a drowning person clinging to anything available”.
Strikes by the Polish farmers regarding the prices of grain in Poland
Other parties such as the Confederation Liberty and Independence party (Konfederacja) are gaining power among the polish people -mainly young men- with their nationalist, far-right ideology. The Konfederacja are led by a populist figurehead, Sławomir Mentzen who gained a following for his far-right views online. Their main aims are for net-zero migration and to remove aid for Ukrainian refugees. This would be a problem for the EU as the far-right party will oppose all migration into the country- which has become a critical variable within Poland for the upcoming election.
On top of voting in the general election, Poles will be given four questions to vote on in a referendum to encourage more of its electorate to participate. All four questions have been written by PiS and have the intent for all votes to answer no. The questions are as follows:
- Should State companies should be privatised?
- Should the retirement age should be increased?
- Should the fence with Belarus be dismantled?
- Should Poland accept more immigrants from the EU?
PiS opposes all four of the questions and opposing parties argue that this will create a bias outcome as they believe the current ruling party are trying to undemocratically influence the election by swaying voters views.
After a virulent campaign filled with stabs at an “un-Polish” Tusk, PiS and its allies are ahead on the polls with a projected 36%, leaving them with a majority in the Sejm. This could be against EU interest as claims say the party plan to remove Poland from the union. In contrast Tusk promises the 'remain' of Poland within the EU and the unblocking of EU funds immediately from the COVID-19 relief aid.