On July 26, 2023, the Niger Presidential Guard staged a coup and detained President Mohamed Bazoum and his family. Senior officers from several branches of the defence and security services (FDS) created a junta known as the National Council for the Safeguarding of the Homeland (CNSP), and declared their takeover of power on national television. The public reaction varied, with mutinous soldiers dispersing initial demonstrations in favour of Bazoum, followed by subsequent demonstrations in support of the CNSP. The Nigerien Armed Forces joined the CNSP on July 27, expressing their desire to avoid fatal confrontation and protect the president and his family.
The coup has been widely criticised around the world, particularly by key stakeholders such as the United States, France, the European Union, and ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States). ECOWAS debated military involvement and threatened sanctions during a summit in Nigeria's capital Abuja, giving the junta a one-week deadline to reinstate Bazoum. The West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA) slapped immediate measures and placed Nigerien governmental assets under freeze. Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Mali have all expressed their support for the Nigerien junta and their reluctance to impose any sanctions on Niger. In a joint statement, Burkina Faso and Mali warned that any military intervention in Niger would be a declaration of war against the two countries. The reactions of the junta-led governments in support of Niger have set the stage for a greater rift and possible break-up of the West African bloc.
The aftermath of the coup has a significant potential for domestic instability and regional conflict, an increase in militant activities, democratic backsliding and civil rights restrictions, as well as severe socioeconomic implications owing to sanctions. Furthermore, the military junta has yet to consolidate its control and is facing stiff opposition from a wide range of international interests. Bazoum is supported not only by the world community, but also by a huge portion of the Niger population, with signs of supporters counter-mobilizing for enormous demonstrations against the junta.
Gen Abdourahmane Tchiani and other army commanders hold a meeting in Niger’s capital
Niger is at a crossroads as the aftermath of the coup settles. With strong local and international resistance, the junta's ability to keep power and gain legitimacy is not guaranteed. The junta's position has yet to be solidified, and the situation is far from stable. Persistent support for Bazoum raises the prospect of further instability, major rallies against the junta, and violent conflict between pro-junta and pro-regime camps, adding layers of uncertainty. Because of the repercussions of the current crisis, the possible impact from this instability may affect the entire Sahel region, worsening existing security issues and possibly giving rise to new threats both locally and regionally. Insurgencies and armed groups like as JNIM, IS Sahel, ISWAP, and Boko Haram (JAS) may exploit and profit from such insecurity and conflict, resulting in increased violence.
The Nigerien junta consolidating power would indicate a further expansion of democratic backsliding in the Sahel (Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, The Gambia, Guinea Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Nigeria and Senegal). If this happens, all central Sahelian (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger) states will be effectively ruled by military juntas, thereby putting an end to democracy in the subregion for the time being. Niger is likely to suffer the same effects as neighbouring Mali and Burkina Faso, where the ascension of military rulers resulted in the degradation of civil freedoms and fundamental rights, including freedom of the press and expression. Furthermore, all three countries have so far been unable to put down a burgeoning regional insurgency that is spreading across West Africa. Niger is also at risk of significant socioeconomic consequences as a result of the impending sanctions and suspension of development and budgetary help. These pressures are likely to aggravate Niger's already precarious economy.