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- Wagner's One Day 'Coup'
As the tensions within the Russian state reached a climax, Yevgheny Prighozin and his men chose to retreat after they were offered a deal by the Russian government for the leaders to be safely transferred to Belarus where they would receive full immunity and for Prighozin’s contractors to be either reinstated into the army or to retire to their houses. Prighozin declared in a statement that he decided to retreat and call for a truce after the realization that blood would be shed and that was ‘the last thing he wanted’. However, Prighozin was in no position to march on Moscow as he lacked air support and the original estimations of 20,000-50,000 troops were false, in reality, he had around 8,000 soldiers with him. However, Putin gave him a rather fair way out which many people considered out of character, but in reality his hand might have been forced. In the months prior Russian media has displayed the actions of the Wagner group as heroics and Putin has been criticized for undersupplying the front lines and failing to take a stand of solidarity with the soldiers in the front lines fighting for Russia. Using the Russian Army to attack Wanger and stop their march would have caused a lot of backlash and instability since Wanger soldiers and Russian soldiers fought side by side for months. In addition, Putin couldn’t afford the backlash that would come if he convicted The Wagner Group’s leadership. Furthermore, arresting the mercenaries for treason would be impractical as it would cause strife in the Russian Armed Forces and decreases Russia’s military capabilities. However, with the sudden and out of character de-escalation many critics are speculating that the coup could have been a political ploy. With the relocation of Wanger in Belarus, Putin has strategically managed to relocate the army to his allies border next to Poland and Kyiv. Wanger is also training the weaker Belarusian Armed Forces, possibly foreshadowing a full Belarusian entry in the war. In addition, the Ukrainian Armed Forces, possibly in communication according to some sources attacked certain Russian defensive positions hoping they would be undefended; those positions were later described as traps causing large causalities on Ukraine's side. Wanger and Putin have previously used media to their advantage when Wanger was announcing its lack of bullets. According to a few sources, that was an attempt to trick the Ukrainian Armed Forces to underestimate Wanger in Bakhmut, however, this theory has not been verified. Putin's treatment to the munity was interpreted by international media and political society as weakness on Putin’s part and inability to control affairs with his own country, let alone internationally. Many critics have pointed out that this coup was done to provoke criticism for Putin and expose his government rather than to overthrow the government. Co-Author: Christos Ntinoulis
- Fatal Police Shooting of Teenager Triggers Protests and Arrests Across France
In a strikingly reminiscent incident to the tragic George Floyd case in the United States, France finds itself grappling with a controversial police shooting that has ignited public anger and raised questions about law enforcement's use of force and racial profiling. The victim, 17 year old Moroccan-Algerian Nahel Merzouk, was fatally shot on a Tuesday morning during a police stop near Nelson Mandela Square in Nanterre, France. Contradicting the official narrative, eyewitnesses and surveillance videos have played a pivotal role in shaping the public's perception of the incident. These sources suggest that Nahel's encounter with the police took a disturbing turn as officers fired at close range while he was inside his yellow Mercedes. Nanterre Mayor Patrick Jarry confirmed these details, emphasizing the gravity of the situation. People look at burning tires blocking a street in Bordeaux in southwestern France on Thursday night, as the country saw widespread unrest over a police killing of a teenager. Philippe Lopez/AFP via Getty Images Several video recordings, taken from different angles, have come to light, challenging initial claims that the officers were in danger when one of them opened fire. Instead, these recordings show the officers positioned next to the driver's window, with one officer pointing a gun inside the vehicle before the car started moving. Disturbingly, a voice can be heard warning Nahel, "You are going to get a bullet in the head," followed by a single gunshot. Tragically, Nahel died at the scene. The officer responsible for Nahel's death is now in custody. A preliminary charge of voluntary homicide has been filed against the officer, as a review found that the legal standard for the use of deadly force had not been met when he fired at unarmed Nahel from such close proximity. According to France's BFM TV, the incident began when two officers on motorcycles attempted to stop Nahel's car for speeding through bus lanes. The driver only came to a halt when confronted by a traffic jam. Official reactions to the ripple effect of the incident have been mixed, reflecting the complex and emotionally charged nature of the situation. Authorities, from the mayor to the president, have expressed condolences and support for Nahel's grieving family, while also promising accountability within the police force. Nevertheless, as protests against police brutality and racism have escalated across the country, leaders have shifted their focus toward crowd control and preventing damage, deploying tens of thousands of police officers. French President Emmanuel Macron rightfully condemned the teenager's killing as "inexplicable and unforgivable." However, in light of the intensifying protests and hundreds of arrests, he later called for assistance in regaining control. Macron's shift in tone reflects the challenges in balancing public outrage sparked by the abuse of legal power with the need for maintaining peace. The fatal police shooting of Nahel has reignited debates about police conduct, and also brought to the forefront questions about racial bias in relation to police brutality. France finds itself at a crossroad when managing the reactions this incident evoked, with the need to both address the circumstances surrounding Nahel's tragic death and regulating the ongoing protests and unrest. Nahel's mother attends a white walking in memory of her 17-year-old son who was killed by French Police in Nanterre, near Paris, France, 29 June 2023. EFE/EPA/YOAN VALAT The statement from lawyers representing Nahel's family strongly rejects the police's initial claim that officers' lives were in danger due to the driver's alleged threat to run them over. Yassine Bouzrou, a lawyer for the family, expressed skepticism about the police's version of events and stated that the available images "clearly showed a policeman killing a young man in cold blood." He characterized the police officer's actions as far from a legitimate defense. Furthermore, the family has taken legal action by filing a complaint against the police, accusing them of initially lying about the car's alleged attempt to run down the officers during the incident. The killing of Nahel marks the second fatal shooting during traffic stops in France in 2023, following a distressing trend of such incidents in recent years. In 2022, there were 13 recorded deaths from police shootings during traffic stops, raising concerns about the use of lethal force, especially against minority communities. Notably, a Reuters news agency tally reveals that a significant number of the victims in fatal police shootings in 2021 and 2022 were individuals of Black or Arabic origin, further underscoring concerns about racial bias and police conduct. Local minorities, especially of arab-descent, such as Mornia Labssi who is an anti-racism campaigner and Nanterre resident, expressed deep concern and fear for their children in the wake of these incidents. Labssi has engaged with Nahel's family, and together they call for action to address these pressing issues. The incident has sparked a broader conversation about police practices, racial bias and profiling, and the need for accountability within the law enforcement system in France.
- Emergence of a New Left-Wing in Greece
PASOK and SYRIZA - What is the difference? PASOK - KINAL PASOK is a socialist democratic and left-wing nationalist party which was one of the two major parties from 1974 to 2012. It was the main opponent of New Democracy for most of its existence. However, due its failure to handle the debt crisis and due to being blamed for it partially it fell out of popularity in 2012 and SYRIZA rose as the new leader of the left-wing. For many that was the end of PASOK. It was scoring around a 6% in national elections and rebranded. This convinced the Greek populace that PASOK had come to an end. However, the 2023 election signaled to the world and Greek people that PASOK was back. After getting 12.3%, 20% higher than the polls predicted, PASOK made a comeback. It still is nowhere as big as it used to be but it is the fastest growing major party in Greece. SYRIZA SYRIZA is a socialist and left-wing party which rose as the main opposition party in Greece in 2012 when it ended the 40 year old two party dominance of PASOK and New Democracy. SYRIZA is anti-EU and wants to stand up against the debtors and renegotiate new deals. SYRIZA got elected in 2015 and launched the country in an even larger economic crisis. Despite that, the party tried to increase minimum wages and fought against anti-immigration policy and measures. In 2019, SYRIZA lost the election to New Democracy. They led the opposition since then and now attempted to make a comeback which failed. The 2023 election could potentially be the end of SYRIZA as a major player in Greek politics. Is SYRIZA's rise to power going to be short-lived? The new 2023 election has been catastrophic for SYRIZA. In 2015 SYRIZA got 35.46%, in 2019 35.14% and now in 2023 20.07%. SYRIZA was supposed to capitalize from Covid-19, the train disaster and the difficult time the early 2020s have been. Due to this SYRIZA expected a victory. In addition, election polls predicated the race to be close with around a 4% to 5% difference between the parties. With SYRIZA falling to 20% and PASOK rising to 12% the difference between the two has never been closer. In addition, with a second round very likely PASOK is trying to rally support to possibly overcome SYRIZA and lead the opposition. This outcome is still very ambitious but with many SYRIZA voters fleeing to PASOK and how this election has turned out nothing is surprising.
- Wagner Group 'Coup' Attempt?
WHO ARE THE WAGNER GROUP? Also known as Wagner PMC (private military corporation) it is a company which operates as a Russian private military contractor. It has offered its services to both private groups and the Russian government. Its relationship with the Russian government is ambiguous but it is widely believed that it operates as a proxy force for the Russian state in the past. The Russian government denies ties with the organisation as it has been accused of several human rights abuses and international law abuses. WHO IS YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN? Yevgeny Prigozhin is leader of the Wagner group and for a long time has been known as Putin’s right-hand man. He is nicknamed ‘Putin’s chef’ because of his catering companies but he is also in charge of legislation companies that were accused of interfering in the 2016 US elections on Putin’s behalf by spreading misinformation. Most notably though, Prigozhin and the Wagner group have been accused of carrying out Putin’s ‘dirty work’ as they are dissociated from the government so the state cannot be held accountable. In recent weeks Prigozhin has publicly accused the Russian ministry of defence of undersupplying them with munitions and supply levels falling below 70%. In a meeting with Putin last week Prigozhin revealed that he believes Putin should have taken Kiev in March 2022 and that the war was orchestrated for the purpose of power and money, resulting in unnecessary Russian casulties. Prigozhin accused Russian forces of bombing a Wagner camp and is using this as pretext for the attack. Since last night Prigozhin has accused Russia of bombing his military sites in Ukraine as a reaction to his attempted coup. The Russian ministry of defence has denied all allegations. Prigozhin is extremely right wing and has publicly advocated for Russia to undertake an expansionist policy and has accused Putin of not being aggressive enough against Ukraine multiple times and going easy in some points during the war. He also disagrees with the idea that the Ukrainians deserve mercy because they are also Slavic peoples. If Prigozhin where to take control of the army, the situation for Ukraine could get much worse. At the same time however there is suspicion inside the Russian government that the Wagner group has been bought out by the US and is doing this on behalf of the west in order to remove Putin from power. However, there is no evidence of this, only motive and it is quite unlikely, but altogether possible given the independent state of the Wagner group. CURRENT EVENTS Late last night (23rd June) Wagner forces still in Bakhmut (Russian territory in Ukraine) opened fire on Russian forces and on open roads, however there have also been reports that Russian Federation (RF) forces shelled Wagner Group positions first. Some of the RF forces joined the opposition and fighting is still taking place in the region. Meanwhile Wagner entered the streets of Rostov-on-Don, a Russian city on the South West borders of Ukraine. Video evidence has surfaced showing a heated meeting between Wagner Leader, Prigozhin, and RF commander of Rostov HQ. Prigozhin is accusing the RF of attacking civilians, also stating Wagner is “after the Chief of Staff and Shoigu”, consequently adding “if they don’t come, we don’t leave.” A Wagner operated channel has written that “All military personnel of the RF armed Forces who do not want to join the cleansing campaigns will be considered collaborators” and will be dealt with accordingly. This is therefore a clear sign revolt by force and the early stages of a potential coup. Wagner is moving along the highway travelling to Moscow as Putin and other high ranking officials have been evacuated from Moscow and have moved to St. Petersburg according to the movement of Military VIP aircrafts. The lack of fighting is worrying for Putin as the Federal Security Service and the OSBR (Spetsnaz branch) had set up blockades but there is little resistance as Wagner’s forces advance toward Moscow. This is indicative of Russian forces joining the Wagner forces. This is incredibly worrying for Putin as reports coming in now (24th June, 16:06 GMT) say that Wagner forces are currently located at the Moscow OBLO which is roughly 1 hour away from Moscow city. Wagner had around 25,000 mercenaries on his side however after taking over military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don yesterday he now has around 50,000 soldiers at his disposal. The Wagner forces are certainly outmatched currently but the lack of intervention by the Russian army is very worrying for Putin. There have been reports now for months that the Russian troops in Ukraine have been demoralised as casualties have surpassed 50,000 and Putin has been happy to let the war drag out, being reluctant to increase aggression. He has not once visited the front lines and is never near officers in uniform to show he is engaged in the war. As a result he has alienated much of the Russian army and there is growing belief that as Prigozhin is moving toward Moscow Russian soldiers may desert and join Wagner’s forces. UKRAINE SIDE DEVELOPMENTS Ukraine has regained positions that have been under control of Russia since 2014 south of Donetsk, Russian front lines are collapsing as Wagner forces are moving from Ukraine to move toward Moscow. NUCLEAR INTERVENTION Nuclear intervention is unlikely by Putin as using Weapons of mass destruction in his own territories would show instability and weakness on his side. It would not help his image to show that he doesn’t have sufficient forces to maintain power in his own capital. Also if he were to use nuclear weapons on the Wagner group it would be impossible to contain the damage and there would be huge impacts on civilians which would cause irreparable damage to the support of his government. Furthermore, use of nuclear weapons breaches the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) and would therefore allow NATO to intervene in the Russo-Ukrainian war which would be catastrophic for Putin and cause unnecessary tension. PUTIN’S ADDRESS Putin finally addressed the situation today, releasing a message at 11:22 (GMT) addressing the attack as an “internal mutiny” and a “stab in the back” warning of serious consequences for those who join or aid the coup in a way as they would be committing “treason”. Many however have commented on his body language and uneasiness during the speech which contrasts with his usual self during other speeches hinting at a lack of control of the situation, backed up by the reports that he is leaving Moscow so readily after showing little resistance as Prigozhin closes in on the city.
- Who won the Turkish Elections?
Turkey has just voted in their general elections and after almost all the votes have been counted there is still no clear winner. With over 49 percent of the votes sitting president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his party the AKP , Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi (Justice and Development party), has received the most support but not enough to clearly win a majority. In second place and Erdoğan main rival was Kémal Kılıçdaroğlu and his party the CHP , Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi (People's Republican Party) with 45 percent of the votes. A third candidate called Sinan Oğan and his party the MHP , Milliyetçi Hareket Partisi (Nationalist Movement Party) got the last 5 percent. Erdoğan who's been in power with Turkey for 20 years, has been critisised for his anti-democratic leadership, He is also critical of western countries. Kılıçdaroğlu has promised to improve democracy and strengthen relations with Turkey's Allies. The election comes a few months after Turkey suffered an Earthquake that was one of the most devastating for the country and that killed more than 50,000 people. The Erdoğan governement was blamed for for slow rescue response to this disaster. To decide the ultimate winner there will now be a runoff election on May 28th. This means it will be a head to head election between Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu. Whoever gets more than 50 percent of the votes will win. Speaking after the first election results, Erdoğan told supporters: "we are far ahead". While Kılıçdaroğlu told fans: "we will absolutely win in the second round".
- Greek Election Results
NEW DEMOCRATIC VICTORY Greece and the world is shocked after New Democracy's huge victory in the 2023 Greek legislative election. Election polls were placing New Democracy at around 32% with the main opposition party, SYRIZA, with 30% right behind New Democracy. New Democracy has surprised the world by coming first with a staggering 40.79% with SYRIZA at second place with only 20.07%. This seems to be the end of Left-Wing populism in Greek politics after SYRIZA suffers a second defeat in national elections. A New Parliament is formed New Democracy New Democracy with 40.7% earns 146 seats in the Hellenic Parliament. SYRIZA SYRIZA with 20.07% earns 71 seats in the Hellenic Parliament. PASOK - KINAL PASOK - KINAL with 11.46% earns 41 seats in the Hellenic Parliament. KKE KKE with 7.23% earns 26 seats in the Hellenic Parliament. Greek Solution Greek Solution with 4.45% earns 16 seats in the Hellenic Parliament.
- The New Leader of the Greek Right-Wing
Fall of Golden Dawn Golden Dawn had been the leading of the Greek Far-Right since 2012. On average they have been getting around 6-7%, excluding 2019 when they achieved a low 2% of the national vote. In 2020 6 party leaders were convicted and the party was labeled a criminal organization for its violent actions towards opposition and minorities. This created large amounts of protest since its supporters followed the party radically. In 2023, Golden Dawn has not run in the election, however, a remanent called "Greeks" is expected to get a round 2.6% of the according to recent polls. Greek Solution - Leading the Greek Right-Wing Greek Solution was founded by MP Kyriakos Velopoulos in 2016. The party is a right-wing populist and ultranationalist. The party focuses on preserving Greek Orthodoxy and culture. The party is against illegal immigration and the LGBTQ+ movement. In terms of foreign policy the party criticizes New Democracy for serving US interest. Kyriakos Velopoulos has vowed to put Greek interest first and align with whoever will move Greece forward, not exclusively East or West. Kyriakos Velopoulos is from Macedonia and heavily against the Prespa Agreement giving North Macedonia the name "Macedonia." Many Greeks agree with him that this agreement "sold" Greek history and culture. Greek Solution has written a 400 page plan on how they plan to improve and run the Hellenic Republic. Visit Page - Greek Solution Program
- Turkish Pre-Election Polls
How do the Turkish Election work? Every five years, elections are held in Turkey. Parties who achieved the 5% voter threshold in the most recent legislative election or those who have accumulated at least 100,000 signatures in support of their nomination may nominate presidential candidates. Parliamentary elections take place at the same time as the presidential elections. Turkey follows a system of proportional representation in parliament where the number of seats a party gets in the 600-seat legislature is directly proportional to the votes it wins. Is Erdogan in danger of losing the presidential election? In Turkey, the first round of the presidential election will be held this Sunday, May 14. Incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is in bad shape and intends to catch up after having put his electoral campaign on hold due to health problems. He is also widely criticized for his poor management of the devastating earthquakes that occurred last February. Since then, he has multiplied his speeches on state television, enjoying 60 times more speaking time than his rival. He can also count on the support of Vladimir Putin. However, next May 14 will undoubtedly be the most perilous election since he came to power 20 years ago. For the moment, the polls show him losing against his great rival, the leader of the socialist opposition Kémal Kılıçdaroğlu. Kémal Kılıçdaroğlu - CHP , Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi (People's Republican Party) Recep Tayyip Erdoğan - AKP , Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi (Justice and Development party) ERDOĞAN AIMING FOR ANOTHER TERM? On May 14, 2023, Turkish voters will choose their next president. The former president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan faces social economist and opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. As shown from these graphs the latest trends don't favor Erdoğan for the next potential president. SOURCE: POLITICO research
- Greek Election April Polls
Early New Democracy Lead As the April elections loom closer, the latest polls show a tight race between Greece's political parties. According to recent polls, New Democracy is leading with 28.6% of the vote, with SYRIZA following closely behind at 22.2%. The third-largest party is PASOK - Movement of Change, with 9.9% of the vote. Kyriakos Mitsotakis, New Democracy It's worth noting that younger voters tend to lean left and are less likely to participate in polls, so it's possible that the final election results may see a higher percentage of voters for SYRIZA or PASOK - Movement of Change. As election day approaches, all eyes are on the candidates as they campaign for every last vote. Alexis Tsipras, SYRIZA Return of PASOK - Movement of Change In the lead-up to the 2023 Greek election, there has been a notable shift in the political landscape, with the resurgence of PASOK/KINAL in the polls. The party, which was once a dominant force in Greek politics, had seen its voter share dwindle in recent years. However, a steady increase in support since 2015 has seen the party's fortunes improve. In the 2015 general election, PASOK/KINAL secured just 6.2% of the vote, a far cry from their heyday when they regularly polled over 40%. By the 2019 election, their voter share had increased to 7.2%, and the latest polls for the 2023 election show the party at 9.9%, a significant increase from the previous elections. The party's rebranding and new motto of "Movement of Change" have helped to win over voters who had previously supported other parties, including SYRIZA. The similarities in ideology between the two parties have led some to switch their allegiance to PASOK/KINAL, especially those who were disappointed by the 2015 SYRIZA and 2019 New Democracy government's handling of various issues. Nikos Androulakis claims "The Greek people deserve more"